In keeping with the national trend of recession, San Diego County’s job outlook isn’t really exactly as shiny as a new catamaran. On the other hand, as University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin most recently told the La Mesa-Foothills Democratic Club, San Diego is no longer shedding jobs at a record pace. Considering how grim things have been economically, a net gain of 100 jobs over a 12-month period beginning in Nov. 2009 must be viewed in a good light, reports the La Mesa Patch. The fact that people are also making on time payments on their payday loans more and more is also good news.
San Diego’s economic outlook in a holding pattern
Professor Gin, a respected economic forecaster, says that San Diego’s economic outlook is no longer in free fall. In his PowerPoint presentation to the La Mesa-Foothills Democratic Club audience, Gin predicted that the national job report for December – which will be released Friday – should feature a "really good number" that will in turn bode well for San Diego’s economic recovery.
Alan Gin then said that this year alone house prices would go up 5 to 7 percent in San Diego while he referred to his most recent monthly "index of leading economic indicators" that he came out with. A net gain of 1,000 to 1,500 jobs will happen as well. This is what Gin says 2011 will be looking like. There were 70,000 jobs that were lost in just 2009 which means the city, after losing jobs for three whole years, can really use the increase like this.
Job fields in 2011 for San Diego and the people living there
Gin suggests that there are three fields in San Diego County that will grow the most in 2011. These would be hospitality, admin-support and health care. The area's economy are is expected to be driven by defense/Homeland Security, biotech, communications and green technology more than anything though. EcoATM was one of the green tech companies mentioned by Gin in San Diego. He said that consumers can recycle old cell phones for store vouchers with this kiosk based business.
No matching GDP forecast with it
There isn't a ton of gross domestic product numbers going up and showing for San Diego. This is what Gin said would be nice if it could happen. In 2011, there is expected to be a 3 to 3.5 percent growth. Jobs won't become available all the sudden though. There is no longer a downward spiral toward lower consumer confidence, a decline in spending, decline in investing, decline in hiring and decline in payday lending with the higher unemployment not going any higher either.
"At this point, we’ve flattened out," said Gin.
Information from
Alan Gin's USD homepage
home.sandiego.edu/%7Eagin/
La Mesa Patch
lamesa.patch.com/articles/leading-economic-indicators-guru-things-are-not-falling-anymore
Alan Gin on San Diego avoiding the ‘double-dip’
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